100 Million Projected Coronavirus Infections

100 million people could be infected with the Wuhan coronavirus by Feb. 20, 2020, using a conservative 2.5 infection rate geometric projection. (not the worse 3.8 infection rate projected for coronavirus).

This is not a prediction, since successful quarantines and possible vaccines could slow the spread.

Blue line: Actual number of reported cases at 4,515 as of January 27.

Feb. 6 UPDATE: 31,525 cases. (South China Morning Post)

Orange line: Progression if 1 person infects 2-2.5 people.

Spanish flu infection rate: 1.4 – 2.8.

Coronavirus projected infection rate: 3.6-4.0, according to a report by UK researcher Jonathan Read available in PDF from Medrxiv.org.

Chart created by Bianco Research.